Otani is on the offensive, the Dodgers break through the difficulties and have more than 70% chance of advancing to the National League Championship Series

On October 5th, Shohei Ohtani made history by becoming the sixth player in Los Angeles Dodgers history to hit a home run in his postseason debut. After a seven-year wait for a chance in the MLB playoffs, Ohtani delivered an impressive performance, going 2-for-5 at the plate and driving in three runs. His contributions helped the Dodgers secure a 7-5 victory over the San Diego Padres, marking their first win in the best-of-five Division Series. Historically, this puts the Dodgers’ chances of advancing to the National League Championship Series at over 70%.

As the top seed in the National League playoffs, the Dodgers faced a lot of pressure, especially after being eliminated by the Padres in the Division Series two years ago and posting a disappointing 5-8 record against them during the regular season.

Ohtani’s postseason debut did not disappoint the enthusiastic crowd of 53,028 fans at Dodger Stadium. In the second inning, he hit a three-run homer off Padres starter Dylan Cease, tying the game at 3-3 and changing the momentum for the Dodgers significantly.

The Dodgers’ starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, struggled early, allowing three runs in the first inning and putting the team in a tough spot. Sports writer Sarah Langs pointed out that prior to this game, the Dodgers had never won a playoff game after being down by three or more runs in the first inning, with a record of 0-14 in such situations—none of which included Ohtani.

Not only did Ohtani help turn the tide for the Dodgers, but he also joined an elite group of players, following in the footsteps of Jim Gilliam (1953), Mike Piazza (1995), Tom Wilson (2004), Max Muncy (2018), and Gavin Lux (2019) to hit a home run in the team’s postseason opener.

According to the Dodgers’ official website, teams winning the first game of a best-of-five Division Series have historically had a 72% chance of winning the series, with 109 out of 152 teams going on to advance. Additionally, in the current 2-2-1 format of the Division Series, 51 teams that have won the first game at home have resulted in 37 series victories, translating to a 73% success rate.