Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba went from being a lone bird to becoming the president of the Liberal Democratic Party

Before the recent presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shigeru Ishiba engaged in a personal tradition: he treated himself to a plate of delicious pork cutlet curry. This wasn’t just a meal for him; it was a way to channel his aspirations for victory and showcased his unique flair. Ishiba’s dish of choice is curry, crafted from a special recipe that highlights local ingredients from his hometown of Tottori. His “Ishiba Curry” has garnered a following among LDP members. However, prior to his recent comeback, Ishiba had experienced a significant period of political marginalization, often referred to in Japan as “eating cold rice”—a term that indicates being overlooked and disregarded, aptly describing his isolated standing within the party.

On election day, September 27, Ishiba posted a photo of his lunch, a pork cutlet curry, on X (formerly Twitter). The dish carries political weight; the Japanese word for pork cutlet, “katsu,” sounds like the word for “victory.” Historically, the amount of pork cutlet curry consumed on voting day has been seen as an informal gauge of party members’ voting tendencies toward certain candidates.

Ishiba’s election win, which made him Japan’s 102nd Prime Minister, was portrayed as a “comeback” in Japanese media. This outcome surprised many observers, particularly since Sannae Takagi was believed to have an advantage. Despite the campaign strategies of Fumio Kishida and Yoshihide Suga, support ultimately rallied around Ishiba in the final round, leading to his unanticipated victory. Some outlets in China and Taiwan noted that Ishiba was initially unpopular, which overlooks the fact that whispers of support had been growing since November 2023, coinciding with Kishida’s approval ratings dropping to 25%.

While Ishiba managed to gather endorsements from influential party veterans after announcing his candidacy, the momentum was not overwhelming. Many viewed him as “unlikely to win,” due in part to his four previous unsuccessful bids for the presidency and the diminishing power of his faction in comparison to the dominant Abe faction. This left many questioning if a fifth campaign would bear fruit.

“Can a guy who’s been eating cold rice become the leader of the LDP?” has been a common refrain. Many believed that Ishiba’s previous marginalization signaled a decline in his influence, particularly during the tenure of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose faction held significant sway over the party. Ishiba’s open criticisms of the Abe administration on key issues, including the controversial Moritomo and Kake scandals, positioned him as a voice of dissent within the party. However, this also led to his increasing isolation from party members and a loss of influence within his faction due to Abe’s prolonged leadership.

Political journalists in Japan poignantly described Ishiba’s “cold rice” predicament, noting that as Abe’s administration gained strength, Ishiba’s once-popular “Ishiba Curry” seemed to vanish from the menu of political dialogue.

The “Ishiba Curry,” with its secret recipe featuring locally sourced Tottori ingredients like chicken and pear wine, was once a celebrated dish within the LDP. In March 2013, during a party convention, Ishiba, then the party secretary-general, showcased his culinary skills by personally preparing his curry for party members, fostering connections with the electorate.

Now that Ishiba has reentered the spotlight, some are speculating about whether “Ishiba Curry” could regain its status as a political symbol. Experts suggest that while his past unpopularity might pose challenges due to lingering resentment from Abe’s faction, there’s a sense of optimism that with Abe’s passing and the fallout from political scandals, Ishiba’s return could represent a shift in party dynamics.

Ishiba is anticipated to be formally appointed as Japan’s new Prime Minister on October 1, alongside the announcement of his cabinet. Among the expected appointees are Taro Kono as foreign minister and Tomomi Inada as defense minister, both of whom possess experience in national security and a strong awareness of the threats posed by China.

On the very day of Ishiba’s election, the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, published an article authored by him, titled “Shigeru Ishiba on Japan’s New Security Era: The Future of Japan’s Foreign Policy.” In this piece, he called for the establishment of an Asian version of NATO, emphasizing the urgent need for collective security arrangements in light of the geopolitical threats facing the region, drawing parallels between Ukraine and potential scenarios in Asia.